President Lai's Approval Rating Plummets with a ＂Death Cross＂： Expert Reveals Five Critical Factors﹐Trouble from Within
The Storm Media Survey, November 19, 2024
President Lai Ching-te's approval rating has sharply dropped, with a "death cross" between supporters and opponents. A recent poll by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) revealed that President Lai's approval has significantly fallen, with approval and disapproval rates now nearly equal. TPOF Chairman You Ying-lung identified five major reasons behind this decline, citing internal issues as a key factor.
The survey asked: "After more than five months in office, do you approve or disapprove of President Lai’s handling of national affairs, including key personnel appointments and policies?" The results showed that 9.9 percent strongly approved, 32.9 percent somewhat approved, 23.3 percent somewhat disapproved, 19.7 percent strongly disapproved, 10.3 percent had no opinion, and 3.8 percent were unsure or refused to answer. In other words, 42.8 percent of people over 20 approved of President Lai's leadership, while 43 percent disapproved—indicating that those who disapproved now slightly outnumber those who approved. This trend marks a significant shift, with disapproval surpassing approval after nearly six months in office.
According to You, this survey conveys an important message: President Lai is facing his first governance crisis, as the majority of public opinion has turned against him. Compared to last month, the "approval rate of presidential performance" has dropped by 5.8 percentage points, while the "disapproval rate of presidential performance" has risen by 5.3 percentage points. This shift has led to a reversal, with the "disapproval rate" now surpassing the "approval rate" by 0.2 percentage points.
You also indicated that in Taiwan, one percentage point roughly equals 195,000 adults. A 5.8 percentage point drop in presidential approval translates to a loss of 1.13 million supporters. Similarly, the 5.3 percentage point increase in disapproval means that 1.03 million more people are dissatisfied with the president’s performance. In just one month, President Lai has lost over a million supporters, while also gaining over a million opponents. This dramatic shift didn’t happen overnight, and the underlying reasons deserve further investigation.
You also outlined five key short-term reasons for President Lai’s declining approval: First, the Constitutional Court's ruling on parliamentary reform legislation triggered strong societal backlash. According to a November survey, 31 percent of Taiwanese adults approved of the Constitutional Court's decision on legislative authority reform, while 43 percent disapproved. This intense social opposition inevitably reflects poorly on the president.
Second, there is growing public frustration over the ongoing instability in Taiwan's political landscape over the past six months. Every time the legislature convenes, it feels like opening Pandora's box, with continuous conflict, controversy, and turmoil. For example, during the current session, conflicts have arisen over the central government's budget, financial legislation, and constitutional litigation reform. According to the latest research from November, most people believe the ruling party should bear greater responsibility for this chaos, which ultimately affects the president's image.
Third, recent personnel appointments by the Lai administration have sparked strong public dissatisfaction. These appointments include positions at the Central News Agency, Taiwan Financial Holding, the Institute for Information Industry, and nominations for the Grand Justices. The backlash, discontent, and criticism are incessant, with many voices coming from within the ruling DPP itself.
Fourth, satisfaction with the Lai administration’s overall performance in November dropped by 5.4 percentage points, indicating poor cabinet performance, which indirectly impacted President Lai's approval.
Fifth, the "Republic of China fever" that was seen in October has already faded. Among Kuomintang (KMT) supporters, 25 percent approves of President Lai's handling of national affairs in October, but by November, that number had dropped by 14 percentage points, leaving only 11 percent.
According to You, despite President Lai's significant efforts over the past three months to promote the operation of three key presidential committees, namely the National Climate Change Strategy Committee, the Healthy Taiwan Promotion Committee, and the Whole-Society Defense Resilience Committee, these efforts appear to have had little effect in boosting his approval rating.
You indicated that, clearly, over the past month, Taiwan's political landscape has quietly undergone a silent but intense form of protest. Many signs suggest that the phrase "trouble within the green camp" may be an appropriate description.